As Americans wake up to Day Three and Four of the Republican National Convention, the country is heading for nearly 6 million COVID-19 cases and 180,000 deaths.
Yesterday’s RNC speakers were First Lady Melania Trump, who reportedly talked about sympathy for front-line medical workers, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who offered his endorsement of President Donald Trump from the Old City in Jerusalem.
American singer and actress, Bette Midler, called Melania an “illegal alien.” Some claimed that Pompeo’s speech at the RNC was a violation of the Hatch Act, which forbids federal employees of the executive branch from campaigning in favor of the president or vice president.
It’s Only Getting Worse
To add, former GOP strategist and Trump confidante, Steve Bannon, was recently arrested for defrauding campaign donations associated with ‘We Build the Wall,’ a non-profit organization that raised money in support of building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. That wall is reportedly already sinking into the ground.
These are all bad omens for the incumbent during a convention that has, so far, garnered a much lower turnout (viewers) than the Democratic National Convention (DNC) last week. According to FiveThirtyEight, no incumbent president going into the first convention had been as behind in the polls as Trump since 1968.
Undoubtedly, this remains Biden’s presidential election to lose.
Let’s take an in-depth look into these election’s political betting scenarios.
Odds To Win The Presidential Election
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Over the last week, Trump’s approval rating has risen by a few percentage points, hovering just above forty percent. Biden holds a static lead over Trump in general election polls by about seven percent.
In other words, Biden’s odds to win the presidential election have dwindled by a few points, while Trump has gained some ground. Pundits believe that this is exactly the same kind of lead Hillary Clinton held back in 2016.
The deciding factor, once again, looks like it will be the Electoral College. And not the popular vote.
Who Will Win The Popular Vote?
I’ve said this before, that I find it hard to believe an incumbent president could win re-election during a pandemic that has killed nearly 200,000 Americans. With its televised swearing-in of naturalized citizens and other political ploys, the RNC is proving to the public that they are only interested in maintaining their hold on the executive branch by reaching out to swing voters.
This is a weak strategy that leaves the popular vote to the wayside. MyBookie retains odds of -550 for the Democrats vs. the Republicans at +300 to win the popular vote in the 2020 election.
Probably Not The Republicans
I don’t see the Republicans caring that much about winning the popular vote. That’s what these odds show to the casual gambler. It’s not so much that Biden is popular, it’s just that the Republicans know the only way they can win again with Trump is by securing a few swing states via the Electoral College.
Trump and the Republicans are sticking to their base. That makes this bet a little pointless. If you have money to spare, you could bet the underdog. Why miss out on tripling your loot?
But Trump didn’t win the popular vote in the last election. And I find it hard to believe he could do something like that this time around unless he does something genuinely drastic to benefit the public at large. And not just pander to swing-voters or his base.
Biden Vs. Trump Election Odds
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This leads me to the conclusion that Biden deserves his favorability, at least among gambling oddsmakers, at this point in the 2020 election season. Although it’s clear he’s already pulling back on some of his campaign rhetoric and creating a tax plan that might as well come directly from the Republican’s playbook, Biden and Trump are in a dead heat right now at -110 and -110 (BetOnline.ag).
What a lame bet. Biden is just too safe. It gives me the creeps.
How could an old geezer like Biden be the one to defeat Trump, come November? Unless you’re a stoic, I’d take the gamble on the incumbent. Why not?
Trump is the one with the most to lose. I even did a ‘Fill in the Blank’ on ABC News to see who might win the electoral college in November. I came up with Trump at 279 electoral votes.
The winner needs 270.
Biden Is The Safer Bet
Biden is the safe bet, as of the conventions. But this is traditionally when the polls and gambling odds begin to get volatile and strange. Although Trump would probably need to amass one political upset after another, in order to secure a second term, he did it before.
And Biden hasn’t.
So, no matter what, the next president has to make history. And as a gambler, why not have a little fun?
Electoral College Swing States: Biden Vs. Trump
A big factor of the 2020 Presidential Election resides in the swing states. Those states include Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. These states have electoral college vote counts that could determine the election for either Biden or Trump.
Electoral College Swing States Betting Odds
- Florida has -105 odds for Republicans and -125 odds for Democrats.
- North Carolina (another important swing state in the electoral college vote) is getting the same exact odds as Florida.
- Arizona, not typically a swing state, is getting +120 odds for Republicans and -160 odds for Democrats.
I see the Republicans picking up at least Florida or North Carolina. It would also be an upset if they were to lose Arizona (even though the odds say otherwise).
Among swing states, I’d seriously consider sticking with the underdog when it comes to placing bets ‘for’ or ‘against’ the electoral college.
What Other Swing States Are Worth A Bet?
The secondly important swing states among the electoral college include Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
These states might not decide the election, per se, but they’re definitely worth considering for a bit:
- Georgia at -200 for Republicans and +150 for Democrats.
- Ohio at -215 for Republicans and +160 for Democrats.
Georgia and Ohio are two worthy bets for either side. As coin flips go, stay safe or have some fun. You decide.
Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as Swing States
- Iowa at -220 for Republicans and +165 for Democrats.
- Pennsylvania at +185 for Republicans and -250 for Democrats.
- Wisconsin at +180 for Republicans and -245 for Democrats.
Here, I like Iowa for the Republicans (a state Clinton lost to Trump in 2016, the worst performance by a Democrat in nearly 40 years). Pennsylvania is huge, just like Florida. Trump won Pennsylvania by one of the narrowest margins in the state’s election history, in 2016. He repeated that same victory in Wisconsin.
Trump would need to pull off a lot of upsets. He did it before.
I have Trump losing in Wisconsin (because of the recent protests there among the resurgent Black Lives Matter movement, a key factor in Democratic votes across the country) and I have him picking up Pennsylvania.
There are some more swing states to consider, but there’s still plenty of time until November after these conventions to see how the voting public might be shifting their allegiances, if at all
Either way, this is set up to be one of the most important elections in modern U.S. history.
Top Online Sportsbooks To Bet On The 2020 US Elections
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